The New England Patriots head into Kansas City to take on the Chiefs on Sunday night. Very intriguing match-up as we have a team we are used to seeing making deep runs in the playoffs with a veteran QB vs a team new to the party with a young QB. The Chiefs are lead by the young, MVP candidate, Patrick Mahomes. He has looked like a polished veteran throughout the season and into the playoffs. Mahomes had a solid game against the Colts last week, passing for 278 yards on 27/41 and no INTs.
The Patriots are coming off a home win against the Chargers where Tom Brady was 34/44 for 343 yards and no INTs. We are all well familiar with the Patriots’ dominance over the last 10 or so years, and a lot of that has been thanks to home playoff games. The Pats are 20-3 at home in the playoffs in the Belichick/Brady era, but on the road, they are 3-4. Look, I will admit that the sample size is small in Brady’s roads playoff games is small, but they aren’t at home and this one, and I would feel confident betting on the Pats if the game was in Foxboro.
The line opened at -3 for the Chiefs and has basically stayed put. I would be surprised to see this move either way now and it will most likely stay put at -3. The over/under is at 56, and it opened at 58.5 and dropped because of the weather. The weather was initially projected to be around 10 degrees with 15 mph winds. The updated forecast looks like it will be closer to around 25 degrees at kickoff & 10-15 mph winds. Weather shouldn’t be that much of a factor but the winds could affect some of the passing game if it gets around 15 mph gusts. My favorite bet here is the under of 56.5 and I really expect both teams to rely on the running game and Brady to throw a lot of short passes, to keep the clock ticking. I also like the Chiefs to cover, but not as much as I like the under. Pats are vulnerable in the playoffs on the road and I expect Mahomes to have a big game, not only through the air but also on the ground. The Patriots have some holes in their defense and this will be exposed by Mahomes.
Official Pick- Under 56.5, Chiefs -2
Join our FB Group below to discuss Patriots vs Chiefs and who you think will cover other top games this week.