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  • Colts at Texans preview: Betting odds, top spread pick, props

Colts at Texans preview: Betting odds, top spread pick, props

  • by Ben Cary
  • January 4, 2019
  • NFL, Picks

AFC Wild Card match-up- Texans at Colts, 4:35 pm ET, Saturday, Jan 5.

The Colts are one of the hottest teams in the league and have won their last four games and nine of their last ten games. Andrew Luck has increased his performance throughout the season and offensive weapons such as T.Y Hilton, Mack & Hines have contributed to the Colt’s success. Colts will need to win their 5th straight game to advance to the next round of the playoffs and it will be a tall order going against the Texans on the road.

These two teams squared up twice this season and both games could have gone either way. Texans won the first game in Indianapolis and Colts won the last game in Houston. Both games came down to a FG and the first game ultimately should have been tied, but Colts aggressively went for the win.

Texans are going for their third win in four games, and have been lead from solid play by QB Deshaun Watson. RB Lamar Miller has carried the running game this season and Hopkins has, of course, lead the offense on the receiving side of things. A player to watch for in this game is D’Onta Foreman, who was out most of the year with an Achilles injury he suffered last season. You could see Foreman in some packages and don’t be surprised if he has a big game or a touchdown on Saturday.

1/5 Picks (NFL,CBB,NBA)

Here are some significant trends going in this game-

Texans-

  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.

Colts-

  • 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff road games.
  • 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.

ATS stands for against the spread.

Colts at Texans pick (Spread & Over/Under)

The Colts have struggled against the spread, and have lost 4 of their last 5 playoff road games. Conversely, the Texans have performed well against the spread. They have won 6 of 8 against AFC opponents and 4 of 5 home games. I give the nod to the home team and the team with the better defense (even though Colts and Texans are statistically tied in defense), Clowney and Watt will pressure Luck all game.

The total has gone under in 8 of the Colts last 9 games against teams with winning records. 48 is a high number for a playoff match-up, but this is where the over under should be considering how the offensives of both teams have played. The total has also gone under in 8 of Houston’s last 10 games following an ATS win and in five of the team’s last seven games against AFC South opponents (teams know each other). I am going with the under in this match-up, not only because of these trends, but I expect the defense of the Texans to have a great game at home.

Official Pick- Texans -1 & Under 48

Props-

TEXANS TOTAL TEAM SACKS  (over 2) -115

COLTS TOTAL TEAM FG (over -1.5) -110

 

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