The Kansas City Chiefs host the red hot Colts in this divisional match-up. Colts have won 8 of 9 and look to carry the momentum into Arrowhead. The biggest factor coming into the game is the weather. Currently, forecasts call for winds up to 15-20mph, snow and cold (30 degrees at kickoff).
Colts have been very balanced on both sides of the ball, and Hines, Mack & Hilton have all been great down the stretch to complement Luck. Chiefs had a week off to prepare for this one, and look for them to try to pressure Luck, as he has had too much time in the pocket the last few games.
From Action Network and Bet Labs, “Since 1990, using data from Pro-Football-Reference, there have been 56 dome teams that played in outdoor playoff games. These teams are 12-44 (21.4%) SU and 18-36-2 (33.3%) against the spread (ATS) in these matchups.
This is a clash of two angles and you have the heavy trend that would say go with the Chiefs at home, and then you have the Colts who are absolutely on fire, and to play them on the road. As for me, Mahomes is the best QB in this game and I like this spot for the Chiefs at home. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has a career record of 20-4 after a bye week, including playoff games. Conversely, he is 11–13 in the playoffs all time. One of these trends will hold true for this playoff match-up.
As for the over/under, I have to go with the under. Chiefs have a solid defense and getting an extra week to prepare for Andrew Luck will be huge. With the winds, cold and snow, the play is either under or fade. I am going with the under of 56 and I like the Chiefs to pull this one out 28-20.
Official Pick- Under 56 & Chiefs -5
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